Caring about the young

Youth care services are going through major changes. This has created a need for a better insight into the demand that is likely to be placed on these services in the future at both national and regional level.

This report suggests that the use of ambulant care will rise sharply on a year by year basis. Nursing care is also forecast to increase slightly, but the use of daycare and residential care services is expected to show a slight fall. An analysis which takes into account the waiting lists for services produces comparable growth figures. The estimates in this report are based partly on determinants of use (age, sex, number of single-parent families and number of young members of ethnic minorities) and partly on trends. Recent trends are seen primarily as a result of a catching-up exercise due to the arrival of a new group of users; in time, the growth rate will return to its usual levels.

The allocation model based on a study of children and parents calculates risk scores which give an indication of educational and upbringing problems. Five significant risk factors are identified for a problematic youth situation. At the level of the child, it is mainly boys and children in the lower echelons of the education system who are at greater risk of developing educational and upbringing problems, while at family level this applies for children from single-parent families, families of non-Western origin and families with a low income.