Models
SCP uses econometric models to generate forecasts. SCP mainly uses models which forecast future trends in demand for use of public services.
Trends and explanations
SCP has a long tradition of developing forecasting models for the
public sector. The two most common forecasts are:
Macro-forecasts, based on extrapolation of current trends. Macro-forecasts play a role in areas such as the compilation of the Public Services Sector Memorandum during the formation of new governments.
Explanatory models, based on microdata on individual users. Explanatory models are used for things such as forecasts of care for the elderly, care for the disabled and childcare.
Research at SCP
The Public Services
Sector research group compiles the forecasts, usually in collaboration
with other research groups with a substantive interest. For example, the Care research
group has collaborated in the development of models for long-term care, while
the Emancipation,
Youth & Family research group helped develop models in the field of
youth care.
More information
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The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) compiles forecasts in areas such as economic growth in the Netherlands, the trend in interest rates, education levels and the care sector.
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Statistics Netherlands (CBS) compiles population forecasts.
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The Ministry of Justice Research and Documentation Centre (WODC) maintains forecasting models for the police and judiciary.
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The Ministry of Education, Culture and Science produces education forecasts.
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